TAMPA — Two struggling NFC teams meet at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon in a game neither can afford to lose.
The Green Bay Packers (1-2) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at 1 p.m. ET on FOX. The Packers are road favorites around 3–3.5 points with a total near 38.5–39.5 — one of the lowest numbers on the board.
Baker Mayfield is out with a dislocated thumb. An undrafted rookie is expected to make his first NFL start for Tampa Bay. That changes everything.
Why the Total Is So Low
Green Bay has been one of the worst rushing teams in the league, averaging under 50 yards per game on the ground. The offense has become almost entirely dependent on Jordan Love throwing the ball. Love has already dropped back more than almost any quarterback in the league.
Tampa Bay’s offense ranks near the bottom in EPA per play. Without Mayfield, the Buccaneers lose their ability to create chunk plays and must rely on a rookie making his debut. Both red-zone and third-down numbers for these teams have been poor.
That combination of limited run games and quarterback uncertainty produces one of the lowest totals of the week.
Key Storylines
The Packers need a bounce-back after a rough home loss to Atlanta. Love has the experience edge by a wide margin. Green Bay’s defense has shown the ability to generate pressure, which is exactly the kind of environment that can overwhelm a first-time starter.
Tampa Bay is 0-3 and searching for any spark. The home crowd will help, but the offensive limitations are real.
Betting Angle
The market has settled near Packers -3 to -3.5. Public money is mixed. Home underdogs with a rookie quarterback often stay competitive longer than expected, but the talent gap at the position is large.
My lean: Packers -3 and the under. Green Bay should control the game script, and neither offense is built to light up the scoreboard right now.
Factors That Will Decide the Game
- Can Jordan Love avoid turnovers and sustain drives without a run game?
- Does the rookie quarterback for Tampa Bay protect the ball against Green Bay’s pass rush?
- Will either team find any consistent production on the ground?
- How many field-goal attempts decide a low-scoring NFC battle?
This has the look of a grind-it-out game decided by the more experienced quarterback.
Final Prediction
Expect a low-scoring, physical contest. Green Bay’s edge at quarterback should be enough to leave Tampa with a much-needed win.
Prediction: Packers 20, Buccaneers 13
Best bet: Packers -3 / Under 39.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is Packers vs Buccaneers?
1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. The game is on FOX.
What are the current odds?
Packers are favored by roughly 3–3.5 points. The total is near 38.5–39.5. Always check a licensed sportsbook for the latest numbers.
Why is the total so low?
Both teams have struggled offensively. Green Bay has almost no run game, and Tampa Bay is starting a rookie quarterback in place of the injured Baker Mayfield.
Who is starting at quarterback for the Buccaneers?
An undrafted rookie is expected to make his first NFL start with Baker Mayfield sidelined by a dislocated thumb.
Can the Buccaneers win this game?
It is possible at home, but the quarterback situation makes it an uphill battle against a Packers team that needs a win badly.
Always bet responsibly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute gambling advice.